Le Malattie Infettive tra il 2° ed 3° Millennio Giovanni Di Perri Clinica di Malattie Infettive Università degli Studi di Torino Ospedale Amedeo di Savoia Ospedale Amedeo di Savoia The 10 Leading Causes of Death, Global, 2000 and 2012 No Causes of death, 2000 Deaths (million ) % of deaths No Causes of death, 2012 Deaths (million) % of deaths 1 Ischaemic heart disease 6.0 11.3 1 Ischaemic heart disease 7.4 13.2 2 Stroke 5.7 10.7 2 Stroke 6.7 11.9 3 Lower respiratory infections 3.5 6.6 3 COPD 3.1 5.6 4 COPD 3.1 5.8 4 Lower respiratory infections 3.1 5.5 5 Diarrhoeal diseases 2.2 4.1 5 1.6 2.9 6 HIV/AIDS 1.7 3.2 6 Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers HIV/AIDS 1.5 2.8 7 Tuberculosis 1.3 2.5 7 Diarrhoeal diseases 1.5 2.7 8 Prematurity 1.3 2.5 8 Diabetes mellitus 1.5 2.7 9 Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers 10 Diabetes mellitus 1.2 2.2 9 Road injury 1.3 2.3 1.0 2.0 10 Hypertensive heart disease 1.1 2.0 11 Prematurity 1.1 2.0 13 Tuberculosis 0.9 1.7 12 Road injury 16 Hypertensive heart disease 1.0 0.8 1.9 1.6 Comparison of leading causes of deaths, Global, 2000 and 2012 Leading Causes of Global Deaths from Infectious Diseases. Fauci AS, Morens DM. N Engl J Med 2012;366:454-461 Emerging Infections in the World since 1973 1973 1976 1977 1977 1977 1977 1980 1981 1982 1982 1982 Rotavirus Cryptosporidium Ebola virus Legionella Hantaan virus Campylobacter HTLV-1 Toxin prod. S.aureus E.coli 0157:H7 HTLV-II Borrelia burgdorferi Enteritis/Diarrhea Enteritis/Diarrhea VHF Legionnaire’s dz VHF w/ renal flr Enteritis/Diarrhea Lymphoma Toxic Shock Synd. HUS Leukemia Lyme disease 1983 1983 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 HIV Helicobacter pylori Hepatitis E Hepatitis C Guanarito virus Encephalitozoon Vibrio cholerae O139 Bartonella henselae Sin Nombre virus Sabia virus Hendra virus Hepatitis G Herpesvirus-8 vCJD prion Avian influenza (H5N1) Nipah virus West Nile virus AIDS Peptic ulcer dz Hepatitis Hepatitis VHF Disseminated dz Cholera Cat scratch dz Hanta Pulm Synd VHF Respiratory dz Hepatitis Kaposi sarcoma Variant CJD Influenza Encephalitis Encephalitis 2000 Outbreak of Rift Valley fever in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, representing the first reported cases of the disease outside the African continent 2003 Global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by a previously unknown coronavirus associated with Chinese horseshoe bats 2003 Cases of monkeypox in the United States linked to exotic pets imported from Central Africa 2003 Reemergence of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Southeast Asia and subsequent outbreaks in Africa 2005 Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Angola 2005-2006 Large outbreak of chikungunya in the Indian Ocean islands of Réunion and Mauritius 2006 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Kenya 2007 Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2007 Outbreak of Nipah virus encephalitis in Bangladesh 2007 First detection in Italy of mosquito-borne transmission of chikungunya fever, previously detected only in parts of Africa and South and Southeast Asia 2007 Hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Uganda caused by a new stain of Ebola: Bundibugyo Ebola virus 2007 Outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Uganda 2008 Ebola-Reston virus detected in pigs in the Philippines 2008 Ebola-like outbreak in Zambia due to a previously unknown virus: Lujo hemorrhagic fever virus, an arenavirus related to Lassa fever virus, which is associated with rodents 2009 Outbreak of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in China caused by a novel phlebovirus (the SFTS virus) 2009 Discovery of two novel tick-borne pathogens in the United States: the Heartland phlebovirus in Missouri and a pathogenic Ehrlichia species in Wisconsin and Minnesota 2009-2010 Influenza pandemic caused by a new influenza strain, influenza A(H1N1) 2009-2010 Locally transmitted dengue in Florida, representing the first cases acquired in the continental United States outside the Texas-Mexico border since 1945 2012 Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2012 Outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Uganda 2011-2012 Influenza cases in the United States traced to a variant swine influenza A(H3N2) virus carried by pigs exhibited at agricultural fairs 2012 Outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Yosemite National Park, California 2012 A novel rhabdovirus (Bas-Congo virus) identified by whole-genome sequencing as the cause of an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic fever in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2012-2013 Outbreak of severe respiratory disease in the Middle East caused by a novel coronavirus (MERS-CoV) that belongs to the same viral family as the SARS coronavirus 2012-2013 Influenza cases in China traced to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in poultry 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea Conackry • • • • • • New agents, New clinical forms of infections caused by known pathogens Cross-species passage of pathogens Transmission through continents New forms of human immune suppression, vulnerability …………. Old and New Infectious Diseases…. How to classify them ? Ve lo ricordate quel testo di Borges (citato anche da Michel Foucault nella prefazione al suo celebre saggio Les mots et les choses) dove si proponeva una grottesca classificazione degli animali desunta da una non meglio precisata enciclopedia cinese? Era una tassonomia fondata sul puro delirio: “Gli animali si dividono in: a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) i) j) k) l) m) n) appartenenti all’Imperatore, imbalsamati, addomesticati, maialini di latte, sirene, favolosi, cani in libertà, inclusi nella presente classificazione, che si agitano follemente, innumerevoli, disegnati con un pennello finissimo di peli di cammello, et caetera, che fanno l’amore, che da lontano sembrano mosche”. Per agente causale…. Secondo la via di trasmissione…. Secondo l’età a. Batteriche a. Via aerea dell’ospite…. b. Virali b. Via alimentare c. Fungine d. Parassitarie e. Prioniche c. Da inoculazione - Trasfusioni Siringhe Rapporti sessuali Esposizione di cute e/o mucose Secondo il distretto o organo coinvolto…. a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. Sistemiche Polmonari Renali Epatiche Intestinali Ossee Cutanee Muscolari Sistema nervoso Secondo lo stato dell’ospite…. a. Popolazione generale b. Immunodepressi - Diabetici Emato/oncologici Ustionati In terapia antineoplastica In terapia immunosoppressiva Infezione da HIV etc…. a. b. c. d. Popolazione generale Neonatologia Pediatria Geriatria Secondo variabili epidemiologiche…. a. Comunitarie b. Associate all’assistenza (Healthcare-related) c. Nosocomiali d. Tropicali Review Article: 200th Anniversary Article The Perpetual Challenge of Infectious Diseases Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., and David M. Morens, M.D. N Engl J Med Volume 366(5):454-461 February 2, 2012 Characteristics of Infectious Diseases That Set Them Apart from Other Human Diseases. * * * * * * * * * * Fauci AS, Morens DM. N Engl J Med 2012;366:454-461 Broad Categories of Infectious Diseases. Fauci AS, Morens DM. N Engl J Med 2012;366:454-461 Emerging infectious diseases: • infectious diseases that have newly appeared in a population. Re-emerging infectious Diseases: • Infectious diseases incidence in human has increased during the last 20 years or threatens to increase in the near future. Major Factors Contributing to Emerging Infections: 1992-2003 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Human demographics and behavior Technology and Industry Economic development and land use International travel and commerce Microbial adaptation and change Breakdown of public health measures Institute of Medicine Report, 1992 More Factors Contributing to Emerging Infections: 1992-2003 7. Human vulnerability 8. Climate and weather 9. Changing ecosystems 10. Poverty and social inequality 11. War and famine 12. Lack of political will 13. Intent to harm Institute of Medicine Report, 2003 The Global Threat of Infectious Diseases Emerging and re-emerging diseases A/H1N1 Dengue A/H1N1 Chikungunya Dengue Adapted from Morens, Folkers, Fauci 2004 Nature 430; 242-9 Emerging diseases Re-emerging diseases Major Infectious Disease Epidemics since 1980 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Dengue/DHF-1970s, SE Asia, global HIV/AIDS-1980s-Africa,global Drug resistant TB-1990s, US, global Cholera-1991-Americas Plague-1994-India, global Foot & Mouth disease-1995,2000- Taiwan & UK West Nile-1990s-Mediterranean, Americas BSE-1990s- UK, Canada, US Swine fever, 1996- Netherlands H5N1 influenza-1997- HK-global Nipah encephalitis-1998-Malaysia,Asia SARS-2002- Asia, global Chikungunya-2004-Africa, Asia H1N1 influenza-2009-Mexico?,global What did these Epidemic Infectious Diseases have in Common? • All were caused by zoonotic pathogens • All spread by modern transportation • Most had Asian origin • Laboratory and clinical diagnoses were problematic • Poor communication among countries • Major economic impact Plague Pandemics • Justinian’s Plague (mid-6th Century A.D.) • Black Death (mid-14th Century A.D.) • Modern Pandemic (1894 – mid-1900s) Global Distribution of Plague Countries reporting plague, 1970-2000 Probable Sylvatic foci Compiled from WHO, CDC, and country sources Surat Potential Spread of Pnuemonic Plague out of India, 1994 India Delhi Calcutta Madras Bombay Pneumonic Plague in India • Indian outbreak was a major surprise – no plague confirmed in India since 1966 • Clinical and lab diagnosis • Media and panic driven epidemic • First epidemic to impact global air transportation • Caused huge economic loss for India (> $3 billion) Palm civet (zibetto) animal reservoir of SARS coronavirus • • • • • • All were caused by zoonotic pathogens All spread by modern transportation Most had Asian origin Laboratory and clinical diagnoses were problematic Poor communication among countries Major economic impact Chain of transmission among guests at Hotel M—Hong Kong, 2003 2 family members 2 close contacts 4 family members Guangdong Province, China 4 HCWs* Hospital 2 Hong Kong F A A F 156 close contacts of HCWs and patients Hospital 3 Hong Kong H Hospital 1 HK J B C 28 HCWs 4 other Hong Kong Hospitals Vietnam B D HCW HCW United States M§ D E Singapor e HCW 34 HCWs Bangkok Data as of 3/28/03 I Germany 0 HCWs Hospital 4 Hong Kong Ireland L§ E C B K† I Hotel M Hong Kong J 99 HCWs (includes 17 medical students) K† A H Canada G† G† 3 HCWs 10 HCWs 37 HCWs 37 close contacts HCW 2 family members Unknown number close contacts * Health-care workers; † All guests except G and K stayed on the 9 th floor of the hotel. Guest G stayed on the 14th floor, and Guest K stayed on the 11th floor; § Guests L and M (spouses) were not at Hotel M during the same time as index Guest A but were at the hotel during the same times as Guests G, H, and I, who were ill during this period. Global SARS Cases (Probable) WHO 26 September 2003 Global SARS Cases (Probable) WHO 26 September 2003 Country Cases Deaths Case fatality Canada 251 43 15.3% China 5327 349 6.5% Hong Kong 1755 299 16.9% Singapore 238 33 15.5% Taiwan 346 37 12.5% Thailand 9 2 22% U.S. 75 0 0% Vietnam 63 5 7.9% Other 81 5 6.2% Total 8098 774 9.6% Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases Plague, India $5-6 bn Why Have we Seen Such a Dramatic Increase in Epidemic Infectious Diseases? Major Drivers • Demographic Changes (Pop Growth) Environmental Change - • • Uncontrolled Urbanization Agricultural/Land Use Practices Deforestation Animal Husbandry Modern Transportation (Globalization) Increased Movement of People, Animals, Commodities Lack of Public Health Infrastructure The global air network Average annual number of global airline passengers by decade, 1950-2010 2000 Million of Passenger (Mil) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1950-1960 IATA 2010 1970-1980 1980-1990 Decade 1990-2000 2000-2009 International tourist arrivals, actual trends and forecast, 1950-2030 Commercial Air Traffic Over a 24 Hour Period Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 Gubler, 1998 DEN 1 DEN 2 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1981 1977 1980 1979 1981 1994 1982 1985 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1977 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1977 1979 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1977 1980 1979 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1981 1977 1980 1979 1981 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1981 1977 1980 1982 1979 1981 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1981 1977 1980 1982 1985 1979 1981 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 1970-2000 1981 1977 1980 1982 1985 1979 1981 1994 1975 1971 DENV – 1; DENV – 2; DENV – 3; DENV – 4 Global distribution of dengue virus serotypes, 2012 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 Adapted from Gubler, 1998 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 DEN 1 DEN 2 DEN 3 DEN 4 Urban Growth in Asian(1) and American(2) Cities, 1950-2010 13 12.4 12 11 10 Millons of People 9 7.8 8 7 6 5.2 4.7 5 4 3 2 1.2 1.3 1 0 1950 1. 2. 1980 2010 Mean population of Dhaka, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila and Saigon. Mean population of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, San Juan, Caracas and Guayaquil. Reservoir Reservoir Reservoir Victim Reservoir Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Victim Reservoir Infected Victim Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Victim Reservoir Infected Victim Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Monkey / Man contact Victim Reservoir Infected Victim Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Handled Eaten Victim Reservoir Victim Infected Victim Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Handled Eaten Infected human Reservoir Victim Infected Victim Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Infected human Handled Eaten Interhuman spread Reservoir Victim h u m a n s Infected Victim b a t s In caves Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Infected human Handled Eaten Interhuman spread Reservoir Victim h u m a n s Infected Victim b a t s In caves Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Infected human Handled Eaten Interhuman spread Reservoir Victim h u m a n s Infected Victim b a t s In caves Fighting for food (esp. dry season) Slaughtered Monkey / Man contact Infected human Handled Eaten Interhuman spread Exotic Mosquito Species Recently Introduced and Established in the US • • • • • Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus Ochlerotatus (Aedes Finlaya) togoi Ochlerotatus (Aedes Finlaya) japonicus Aedes bahamensis Culex biscayensis Live Animal Importation into the USA - 2002 • 47,000 mammals • 28 species of rodents • 379,000 birds • 2 million reptiles • & Poisonous snakes • 49 million amphibians • 223 million fish Data from U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Emerging Diseases Identified by NWHC Inclusion Body Disease Nestling Herpesvirus 1970s Lake Andes Duck Plague Poxvirus Mycotoxin Trichothecine Hepatopathy (Mycotoxin?) 1980s Eastern Equine Encephalitis Pentobarbitol Poisoning Woodcock Reovirus Emerging Diseases Identified by NWHC 1990s Sea Otter Encephalitis Hawaii Disease Biocomplexity Avian Myelinopathy Newcastle Disease 2000s Rainbow Trout Enteritis Stunting, Humpback Chub Hepatopathy in Wisconsin Splenitis, Hepatitis in Brant Chytrid Fungus/ Ranavirus L. polyoon Enteritis Sea Turtle Retrovirus Poisoning in Asian Vultures ??? Coral Coccidiosis, Tumors LT Duck Adenovirus Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/science The Armageddon virus: Why experts fear a disease that leaps from animals to humans could devastate mankind in the next five years •Warning comes after man died from a Sars-like virus that had previously only been seen in bats •Earlier this month a man from Glasgow died from a tick-borne disease that is widespread in domestic and wild animals in Africa and Asia Pathogens of Tomorrow From Whence They Will Come? From Asia From Animals Mostly Viruses 68 Global Threat of Epidemic Infectious Diseases Challenge to Reverse the Trend • • • • Prevent movement of pathogens and vectors via modern transportation Improve international cooperation and data sharing Improve effective laboratory-based surveillance Rebuild public health infrastructure to prevent & control vector-borne and zoonotic diseases Trained personnel Laboratory and epidemiologic capacity Tools (vaccines, drugs, insecticides, mosquito control, etc) • Understanding disease ecology Political will Economic support Regional prevention and control programs Sospetto Diagnostico Cultura Clinico-Epidemiologica Prevenzione Diagnostica Performance indipendente dal mercato Terapia Performance indipendente dal mercato Strategie, Tattiche atte a preservare il valore di vecchi e nuovi farmaci nel tempo (e.g., polichemioterapia, alte dosi) Sospetto Diagnostico Cultura Clinico-Epidemiologica Prevenzione Diagnostica Performance indipendente dal mercato Terapia Performance indipendente dal mercato Strategie, Tattiche atte a preservare il valore di vecchi e nuovi farmaci nel tempo (e.g., polichemioterapia, alte dosi) Stewardship Applicazioni Etiologia • • • • • MRSA VRE ESBL KPC R-FQ Diagnosi • • • • • • CAP HCAP HAP / VAP EI / BSI Tbc …. Reparto • Chirurgia – Profilassi – Terapia • Medicina Interna & DEA • Terapia Intensiva • Oncoematologia Molecole / Consumo • Vancomicina, Carbapenemi, Fluorochinoloni • Daptomicina, Linezolid, Pip/tazo, • Antifungini…… Stewardship Network Tribal Governments Department of Interior NonGovernmental Organizations General Public State Wildlife Agencies Other Federal Agencies "Rapid and appropriate treatment is vital in cases of malaria," says Professor Balbir Singh, Director of the Malaria Research Centre at the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Malaysia Sarawak, "but before the development of molecular detection methods, we had been hampered by our inability to distinguish between P. knowlesi and the benign P. malariae parasites by microscopy. This parasite multiplies rapidly and can cause fatal human infections, so it is vital that doctors are aware that P. knowlesi is the fifth cause of human malaria. “…it is time to ‘close the book on infectious diseases’.” (U.S. Surgeon General, 1967) “During the last 150 years the Western world has virtually eliminated death due to infectious disease.” (U.S. Surgeon General, 1975) “….. Per questo forse m’era stato concesso l’esonero; per questo io solo m’ero salvato e nessun altro, dalla falcidia: per rendere testimonianza, se non delazione, d’una retorica e d’una pietà. Benchè sapessi già allora che avrei preferito starmene zitto e portarmi lungo gli anni la mia diceria al sicuro sotto la lingua, come un obolo di riserva, con cui pagare il barcaiolo il giorno in cui mi fossi sentito, in seguito ad altra e meno remissibile scelta o chiamata, sulle soglie della notte”. Gesualdo Bufalino da “Diceria dell’Untore” Sellerio Editore, Palermo, Pag. 136 TORINO: Stefano Bonora Antonio D’Avolio Mauro Sciandra Alessandra Ariaudo Micol Ferrara Alice Trentalange Marco Siccardi Nicole Pagani Lorena Baietto Lucio Boglione Cristina Tettoni Sarah Allegra Sabrina Audagnotto Debora Pensi Letizia Marinaro Jessica Cusato Margherita Bracchi Laura Trentini Andrea Calcagno Marco Simiele Amedeo De Nicolò Pino Cariti Paolo Bigliano Ilaria Motta Silvia Corcione Maria Laura Stella Filippo Lipani Maurizio Milesi Roberto Bertucci Ambra Barco Agostino Maiello Mattia Trunfio Marino Bonasso Simone Mornese Pinna Chiara Alcantarini Chiara Cardellino LIVERPOOL: David Back Saye Khoo Andy Owen Marco Siccardi Fabio Favata Giovanna Fatiguso Chiara Montrucchio THE UNIVERSITY of LIVERPOOL Valeria Ghisetti Anna Lucchini Francesco G. De Rosa Acknowledgments Veronica Pirriatore Silvia Scabini LONDON: ROMA: Marta Boffito Andrea Antinori Margherita Bracchi Emanuele Nicastri Nicole Pagani Giuseppe Ippolito